中国如何看待：中美科技竞争（英）

A M E R I C A N E N T E R P R I S E I N S T I T U T EDan Blumenthal, Gregory Graff, and Christian CurridenOCTOBER 2022How China Views ItSINO-AMERICAN TECHNOLOGY COMPETITION1ContentsINTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1Dan BlumenthalCOUNTERING CHINA’S MILITARY MODERNIZATION THROUGH TECHNOLOGY CONTROLS: EXISTING MEASURES AND OPPORTUNITIES TO ADVANCE FURTHER CONTROLS ........................................... 6Gregory GraffOLD WINE IN NEW BOTTLES: PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY SYSTEM DESTRUCTION WARFARE AND AMERICAN STRATEGIC-BOMBING THOUGHT ......... 30Christian CurridenNOTES ........................................................................................................ 38ABOUT THE AUTHORS ................................................................................... 512How China Views ItSINO-AMERICAN TECHNOLOGY COMPETITION Dan BlumenthalIn the fall of 2021, in partnership with the Hertog Foundation, I led a research fellowship called “National Security & Sino-American Technology Com-petition.” Fifteen emerging Asia strategists and tech-nologists took part in a series of 18 evening seminars taught by top subject-matter experts on a wide range of topics, including artificial intelligence, cyberwar-fare, semiconductors, biotechnology, and energy. I was fortunate to be able to draw on the expertise of my AEI colleagues—Mackenzie Eaglen, Sheena Chest-nut Greitens, Kori Schake, and Derek Scissors—and leading researchers and practitioners, including Tarun Chhabra, senior director for technology and national security at the National Security Council; Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan (ret.), former director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Michael Lauer, deputy director for extramural research at the National Institutes of Health; and James Mulvenon.The fellows applied what they learned in the sem-inars to their own independent research project on US-China technology competition. The two reports that follow this foreword are from that exercise’s top papers and were presented at a policy salon dinner hosted by AEI. Some of the policy community’s top China and technology experts attended and took part in a lively and enriching discussion. In the first report, Gregory Graff, a Department of Defense analyst, surveys US trade controls on dual-use technologies. Just a few years ago, this topic would have seemed overly technical and even unim-portant. Now it is anything but. An analysis of US efforts to tighten export controls reveals much about China’s technology strategy. Even as China seeks to achieve self-reliance and encourage indigenous innovation, it is still highly dependent on technology transfers from the US. To make this case, Graff cites a Peking Univer-sity study on the implications for China of potential decoupling from the United States. The article on the study disappeared from circulation right after it was published, almost certainly because of its brutal