亚洲经济前景及一体化进程2020年度报告

I 博鳌亚洲论坛 亚洲经济前景及一体化进程 2020 年度报告 对外经济贸易大学出版社 中国·北京 III 缩略语 ··································································· Ⅺ 写作团队成员 ························································ ⅪⅡ 序言 ···································································· ⅩⅤ 上篇 亚洲经济展望 摘要 ······································································· 3 第 1 章 亚洲经济前景与政策 ······································ 5 1.1 经济增长 ···································································································· 5 1.2 就业与收入 ······························································································· 11 1.3 物价与货币政策 ························································································· 16 1.4 贸易和投资 ······························································································· 20 1.5 债务 ········································································································ 26 1.6 金融市场 ·································································································· 30 第 2 章 亚洲经济热点议题 ······································· 37 2.1 中美签署第一阶段经贸协议 ·········································································· 37 2.2 美日签署数字贸易协定 ················································································ 38 2.3 新兴经济体经济增长减速 ············································································· 39 2.4 “一带一路”倡议推动高质量基础设施建设 ······················································· 40 2.5 RCEP 谈判取得阶段性进展 ··········································································· 41 IV 下篇 一体化进程 第 3 章 概要 ························································· 55 3.1 亚洲与世界经济的周期指数同步性有所减弱 ····················································· 55 3.2 亚洲经济体对区内货物贸易依存度上升 ··························································· 55 3.3 亚洲区内全球价值链合作 ············································································· 56 3.4 亚洲直接投资对自身依存度进一步增加 ··························································· 57 3.5 亚洲服务贸易相互依存度较低，旅游业除外 ····················································· 57 3.6 亚洲金融一体化为经济一体化助力 ································································· 58 第 4 章 亚洲经济体之间的贸易依存度 ························ 61 4.1 亚洲经济/贸易一体化指数 ············································································ 61 4.2 亚洲主要成员间贸易依存度分析 ···································································· 63 4.3 贸易成员区域内贸易流向矩阵 ······································································· 66 4.4 亚洲中间品流向与依存 ················································································ 67 4.5 主要经济体就业对国内外需求的依赖 ······························································ 69 第 5 章 亚洲经济体在亚洲工厂中的相互依存度 ············ 75 5.1 亚洲工厂相互依存度指数演变 ······································································· 75 5.2 零部件产品依存度和竞争优势 ·····························································