兰德-核历史对人工智能治理的启示（英）

BENJAMIN BOUDREAUX, GREGORY SMITH, EDWARD GEIST, LEAH DIONInsights from Nuclear History for AI GovernanceExpert InsightsPERSPECTIVE ON A TIMELY POLICY ISSUEMay 2025For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/PEA3652-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions. iii About This Paper There have been multiple proposals for the international governance of artificial intelligence (AI) that draw from the existing nuclear governance regimes. In this paper, we analyze lessons from the history of nuclear stability and draw analogies to building international governance of AI. We analyze two major episodes in nuclear governance, the failure of the Baruch Plan and the success of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to understand what factors led to the failure or success of these governance initiatives. We then identify the challenges that proposals for global AI governance face that might make building a regime similar to the nuclear nonproliferation one difficult. This paper is intended for those interested in potential models for global gov